Chandigarh, November 14
That the Tarn Taran by-election result was not going to make any difference to the overall political scenario in Punjab was a foregone conclusion. Yet it was watched keenly. The result was also expected to go in favour of the ruling party, given its past record and the way it has fought the by-elections, by using all means at its disposal and discretion. Expectedly, its candidate Harmeet Singh Sandhu, a former Akali MLA, defeated the Shiromani Akali Dal candidate Sukhwinder Kaur by a margin of 12091 votes.
But the result has not been without surprises either. In the last General Elections, radical Sikh preacher Amritpal won from the Khadoor Sahib parliamentary constituency by a margin of 1.97 lakh votes. The Tarn Taran assembly segment falls in the Khadoor Sahib parliamentary constituency. From here, Amritpal had polled 44,703 votes. His party, this time, had backed independent candidate Mandeep Singh, who could manage only 19,620 votes. The Congress candidate Karanbir Singh got 15,078 votes, while the BJP candidate Harjit Singh Sandhu got 6,239 votes.
The important takeaway from the Tarn Taran by-election result has been the revival of the Shiromani Akali Dal led by Sukhbir Badal. The result has also been a setback to the Akali rebels, who had supported Mandeep Singh’s candidature. The SAD managed to emerge as runners-up against all odds, when political obituaries had already been written about the party. The party may not have been able to win the seat, yet it has definitely registered an emphatic presence that will go a long way to rejuvenate its cadres, who were lying low till now, in the crucial year ahead of the 2027 assembly elections.
The party president, Sukhbir Badal, went hammer and tongs against the government as well as against the “partisan” officers. It was because of his party’s complaint that the Election Commission of India removed the SSP Ravjot Kaur Grewal and later suspended her. Removal of the SSP gave a boost to the Akali cadres.
The performance of the party has also boosted the party’s rank and file across the state, as the verdict is clear that the party cadres have chosen the official party led by Sukhbir over the rebels headed by Giani Harpreet Singh. The rebels had strategically positioned themselves in support of Mandeep Singh, hoping that he would win and they could at least share the credit. Not only did the candidate they supported lose, but was a distant third.
For the Congress, the result has been quite demoralizing. The party candidate managed to get just 15,000 votes, coming at fourth position behind Amritpal-backed candidate. Although the party had not expected to win, it certainly had not expected to meet such a fate that it would be placed fourth behind.
The party has positioned itself as the principal opposition to the ruling AAP, even assuming itself to be its “natural” replacement. However, with a relatively better show, the Akali Dal will be looking up to its revival after two back-to-back debacles in 2017 and 2022. For the Akalis, there is also a consolation that the candidate elected this time in the by-election, Harmeet Sandhu, is also a former Akali.
Last but not the least, the mainstream Akali Dal led by Sukhbir, scoring far more votes than the radical one, is also an important message that people of Tarn Taran, otherwise considered to be a radical bastion, have opted for the moderates over the Akalis. The message will certainly travel across the state that supporting the radicals may just be an exception and not the rule. Otherwise, assumptions were being made that Amritpal would be an important factor in the 2027 elections in the state. That now looks highly unlikely.
