Last time, Union Home Minister Amit Shah addressed a public meeting in Moga, he asserted with a lot of confidence that wherever the Bharatiya Janata Party touches the 18 per cent vote share mark, it subsequently forms the government in that state. Shah was referring to the BJP’s 18.5 per cent vote share in Punjab in the 2024 General Elections.
Although the BJP could not win any of the 13 parliamentary seats, the vote share was quite impressive as it was ahead of its former alliance partner, the Shiromani Akali Dal, which polled 13 per cent votes only. IT was behind the ruling Aam Aadmi Party and the opposition Congress by about 7 per cent only. The BJP led from 23 assembly segments in 2024. More than the vote share, it was the lead the party had taken in assembly segments that boosted its confidence.
Shah is scheduled to address a public rally in Jalandhar on September 30. This will mark the formal launching of the party’s election campaign in the state. And this is being done by no less a person than Shah himself, the architect and anchor of the party’s election campaigns across the country. That is the reason the BJP cadres are looking forward to the rally with a lot of anticipation.
Shah’s rally follows the BJP’s state-wide ‘Nasha Mukt Yatra’ against drugs. The scourge of drugs is a haunting issue for all the parties and for all the governments. No government, right from the Akali-BJP alliance from 2007 to 2017, the Congress government from 2017 to 2022 and now the Aam Aadmi Party from 2022 onwards, has been able to do much about the problem of drugs despite massive and serious efforts by all of them.
One of the main reasons for the abundance of drugs in Punjab is the state’s long border with Pakistan from where drugs are smuggled here for onward destinations. The issue of drugs can only be addressed with the close coordination between the state and the centre governments. Shah is expected to address the issue tomorrow as well.
On the political front, the BJP has been consistently maintaining that it will fight the assembly elections on its own and field its own candidates in all the 117 assembly segments. This goes quite contrary to the strong opinion of its senior most leader in the state, Capt Amarinder Singh. Singh, in fact, happens to be the senior most politician in the state right now. He and several other BJP leaders have been advocating an alliance with the erstwhile partner, the Shiromani Akali Dal.
Till now, the BJP leaders’ assertion about “fighting alone” has been seen as “political posturing” for deriving a better bargain. The SAD is keen for an alliance. Its survival depends on the alliance with the BJP. On its own, the SAD stands no chance. Nor does the BJP. That is why it is most surprising when the BJP leadership has been asserting to fight the elections on its own.
So far, there has been no clarity about the party’s final decision, which at best has been ambiguous. Wednesday’s public meeting of Shah should hopefully clear the air about the party’s future course of action.
The rally is being held in the centre of Doaba, a belt dominated by the Dalit population. While Punjab has the maximum 33 per cent Dalit population, in the Doaba region the Dalit population consists of 42 per cent. This belt has traditionally been supportive of the Congress. Even during the 2022 AAP tsunami, the Congress managed to do reasonably well in this belt.
The BJP has now been targeting this belt and section of the population. Prime Minister Narendra Modi paid obeisance at the Dera Ballan, headquarters of the Ravi Dasia sect.
The rally will definitely set the tone for the BJP’s campaign for the 2027 assembly elections. Not only the BJP, even the ruling AAP, the principal opposition party the Congress and the Shiromani Akali Dal will be closely watching the outcome of the rally as it will definitely have an impact on the future course of action of all the political parties in the state.
One thing is sure that the BJP has started presenting itself as a serious force in state politics, which till now it was not. That is a new beginning for the party, which till a few years ago was playing within the margins only and was even happy about it. But not anymore.
(Views expressed are personal.)