The 2027 assembly elections in Punjab are going to be an uphill task for the ruling Aam Aadmi Party. Even though it remains in power, it continues to be faced with some inherent handicaps, which it never felt the need to address. For the AAP, it will be a completely reverse situation as compared to 2022, when it swept to power with a sweeping and overwhelming majority, winning almost three-fourth seats in the assembly.
Cadre Deficit Haunts AAP as Rivals Retain Ground-Level Strength
The biggest handicap for the AAP is that it did not build up a strong party architecture, which in turn could have translated into a vibrant cadre base on the ground. Even when the Akali Dal touched its nadir and even when the BJP remained on the margins, both parties still retained a committed cadre that it can bank upon anytime. The Congress indeed has a strong cadre all across, much more than others.
Anti-Incumbency Shadow Looms Large Despite AAP’s Confidence
No matter how much the AAP leadership may appear to convince itself to the contrary, there is a strong anti-incumbency sentiment prevailing against the government. Punjab, by history and Punjabis by nature, has always replaced the incumbent governments, with the lone exception in 2012, when the Akali-BJP alliance repeated the government. Even then, the difference in the share of the vote percentage was just about one percent.
Five Years Later, Voters Ask: Where Is the Change?
2027 is not going to be 2022. It can never be. In 2022, the AAP was provided with an open field. People of Punjab were fed up as they had tried everything and everyone. They got carried away with the AAP plea of “a chance”, as they had tried everyone else. The AAP promised ‘badlaav’ (the change). With four and a half years having passed, things remain the same in Punjab. Rather on certain parameters, the situation has gone from bad to worse. Crime, corruption and drug addiction have beaten all the records.
The Battle Against the ‘Remote-Control Government’ Tag
For the AAP it will be very difficult to fight the perception that the party was being run from “Delhi”. It was no “interference”, but the complete takeover by “Delhi”. First, it was Raghav Chadha, then Sandeep Pathak who called the shots in the government, particularly in the appointments and transfers. Both have now defected to the BJP. They were succeeded by Manish Sisodia and Vaibhav Kumar. The AAP may have managed to control the narrative on the mainstream/legacy media, but in the times of the dominance of social media, it is difficult to hide the reality. The widespread perception remains that the local AAP leadership does not have any say in the governance.
The Million-Dollar Question: Who Really Runs the Government?
It is a known fact that the MLAs and the ministers remain “powerless figureheads”. This is quite unlike what used to happen in the past. While power remained “over centralized” even during the Akali and the Congress regimes, still ministers and the MLAs were not made to feel helpless in front of the “central authority”. Despite concentrating power within the family, the Badals are still known for having empowered the grassroots workers. During both the Congress and the Akali regimes, ministers did enjoy command and control over their ministries. Whether the same thing can be said about the AAP regime remains a million-dollar question.
Universal Free Power Scheme Becomes a Major Political Asset for AAP
One of the important achievements of the AAP has been 300 units of free electricity every month to everyone across the board. Earlier regimes had restricted the benefit to the Scheduled Castes only. This step has touched the middle class segment significantly as saving the monthly electricity bill makes a significant difference to the middle class households also.
Timing of ₹1,000 Monthly Assistance Emerges as a Political Flashpoint
The AAP is also banking on Rs 1000 monthly cash assistance to women. However, the party is too late to get any benefit from it. First, the opposition has already started questioning the last-minute implementation of the scheme when just six more months of the government’s tenure are left. In case the elections are advanced, as announced by Arvind Kejriwal, women will merely get Rs 3000 each in total, against an amount of Rs 60,000 each that they would have got had the scheme been started from the first year of the AAP’s tenure.
AAP Lacks the Traditional Vote Bank Enjoyed by Its Rivals
Such doles and freebies alone do not win elections. These work as “supplementary incentives”. These do definitely get translated substantially into votes, but that alone does not guarantee victory. For electoral victory, the party needs an assured vote base, which gets coupled with those who vote for “doles and freebies”. The AAP in Punjab does not have any assured voter base it can lay claim on.
AAP Faces a Tougher Electoral Terrain as Congress Eyes the Advantage
If the AAP believes that it can benefit from a fragmented opposition, it will be calculating it wrong. Like in 2022, it was an AAP-centric election, the AAP versus the rest, the AAP no longer enjoys the same position. Just being in the government does not guarantee you the centre stage in the electoral battle. AAP has an uphill task ahead, which will be a direct advantage for the Congress, in case the BJP and the Akalis decide to go separately.
(Views expressed are personal.)
